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Lewis Perelman

I'm as big a fan of "evidence-based" management as anyone, especially in areas such as health care and national security where key decisions often appear to be connected loosely, if at all, to empirical reality. That said, there is the lurking danger that organizations bedazzled by slick analytic tools can easily fall into the trap the economist (and statistician) Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen called the "arithmomorphic fallacy"--that is, the illusion that quantitative data *are* reality. A key corollary that Georgescu-Roegen emphasized in a celebrated 1971 book is that the essential product of any economic process is not quantitative flows but "the enjoyment of life" by people.

One form of this fallacy is the equation of quantitative data analysis with "business intelligence," an erroneous equivalence that benefits the sales of SAS and many other vendors of statistical tools. It can be a costly mistake to organizations that wind up eating the menu of analytics in place of the dinner of real, human intelligence.

Managers would be wise to attend to some of the important nuances in Davenport's Babson report on analytics. For instance, Davenport finds that firms tend to be strong *either* at quantitative or qualitative analysis but rarely both. There are few enterprises in which such an imbalanced quest for intelligence can be successful.

Baby boomers remember painfully how the management of the Vietnam War promulgated by Robert MacNamara--a 'whiz kid' of operational analytics going back to the Second World War and through his stellar managerial career at Ford Motor Company--produced statistical success and strategic failure.

General F.M. Francks observed that Vietnam saw the first battlefield use of computers, providing a statistical map of unprecedented detail. Meanwhile, Francks noted, the Vietnamese were digging tunnels and hiding in plain sight among the peasantry.

All this recalls Sherlock Holmes' caveat to his technically trained friend Dr. Watson that "you see everything, and observe nothing."

The importance of not allowing quantitative analytics to trump human judgment, understanding, and relationships was emphasized in this excerpt from Davenport's paper:

"The importance of personal business relationships is deeply embedded in the Wachovia culture, and CEO Ken Thompson insists it remains there even as the culture also embraces analytics. Particularly where customers are concerned,it’s important to remember that marketing and service processes involve more than the application of statistics."

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